Lance Armstrong Meets BioPassport: Tour Hgb not Explainable

UPDATE: Armstrong Exonerated
from Doping at 2009 Tour de France.

UPDATED (Sept. 20): Part 4 Now Available!

Personally, I think Lance Armstrong Doped. But here is an excerpt from part 4:

"...What becomes evident from the composite prediction is that a rise in Retic between the end of the Giro and 6/16 may have been missed. The low Retic at 6/16 may be consistent with the fall after an initial peak. Similarly, the low point at 1 week after altitude exposure may be consistent with the low point after altitude exposure. Overal, assuming that the Retic did in fact trend up before falling you end up with a somewhat akward but plausible fit.

The explanation becomes less convincing when the Retic stays flat after reaching its low. The Retic does show a recovery, but it comes a week later than expected and is followed by another drop. In the end, altitude could be used to account for the initial drop in Retic, but it is not a solid explanation for a persistent low normal Retic.

Taking into account training status, the effect of a Grand Tour, and altitude exposure the analysis fails to fully explain the persistently low normal retic from 6/16 through the Tour. While other factors may be at play they probably have less of an impact. There is also the possibility of a synergistic effect, but it would be difficult to find data that supports this argument while excluding the possibility of manipulation at the same time..."

UPDATED (Sept. 15): Part 3 Now Available!

According to Local Cyclist:

"Yes the Tour Hgb is explainable. In fact, the Hgb may have behaved in a completely consistent manner... the the expected volume expansion did in fact take place. It simply started before the second grand tour and reached a physiologic limit before the end of the race. The clue to this possibility is listening to the Retic..."

Watch this space for a link to the full, upcoming article.

UPDATED (Sept. 15): Part 3 Now Available!

A Tale of Two Cyclists: Part 2; Part 1